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Forecasting the future of Health and Science

Health forecasting is a novel area of forecasting and a valuable tool for predicting future health events or situations such as demands for health services and healthcare needs. It facilitates preventive medical and healthcare invention strategies, by pre-informing health service providers to take appropriate mitigation actions to minimise risks and manage demand. Around the world, public health officials are increasingly relying on disease forecasts to predict and fight forecasts. Health forecasting requires reliable data, information, and appropriate analytical tools for specific health conditions or situations. There is no single approach to health forecasting and so various methods have been adopted forecast aggregate or special health conditions. Monitoring population health, which includes demographic and health surveillanceand epidemiological studies on disease surveillance, can generate very useful data that can be used in health forecasting.

 

A reliable health forecast is important for health service delivery because it can: enhance preventive health care/services, alert the management of patient overflows, and significantly reduce the associated costs in supply and staff redundancy. A well-renowned statistical physicist at Northeastern University, Alessandro Vespignani remarks that his dream is to forecast pandemic-spreading like a weather forecaster predicts a hurricane before it hits the area. Health-forecasting related researches have sometimes focused on the methods or procedures for forecasting aggregate health conditions, or on situations like crowding at emergency departments. It includes limitations like scope and reliability of health data, the robustness of health forecasting tools and techniques, and inefficiency of the record of important population health indicators. Data limitation on these complex factors can pose a challenge in developing a reliable health forecast. Although these kinds of aggregate health forecasts are useful, health care providers would be better informed and prepared with condition-specific health forecasts. Thus, health care providers have to be more specific for particular health conditions.

 

Gurbani Gandhi